Justin R. Pierce
Email: justin.r.pierce@frb.gov

Short Bio

I am an economist at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.  My research focuses on the implications of changes in international trade policy for individuals, firms, and regions.  Prior to beginning my graduate studies, I worked in the private sector, advising domestic and foreign firms involved in antidumping and safeguard investigations.

This is a personal website.  Any results or conclusions in the research presented on this website are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve System.

You can also visit my official website and my Google Scholar page.

Employment

2023 - Present    Section Chief, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2022 - 2023        Group Manager, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2016 - 2022        Principal Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2014 - 2016        Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2011 - 2014         Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2009 - 2011         Economist, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau
2001 - 2003         Economic Analyst, Georgetown Economic Services, LLC    

Visiting Positions

2024                    Visiting Academic, University of Oxford, Department of Economics
2021-2023           Visiting Professor, Advanced Research Methods, American Economic Association Summer Program, Howard University
2018                    Visiting Academic, University of Oxford, Department of Economics

Affiliations and Editorial Positions

Board of Editors, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
Member, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth
Special Sworn Status Researcher, U.S. Census Bureau

Other Activities

2015-2021        Project Advisor, Data Analysis and Financial Literacy in R (Econ-181 and predecessor), Howard University and Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Education

2009   Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University
2005   M.A., Economics, Georgetown University
2001   B.A., Economics, International Affairs, The George Washington University

Working Papers

Trade Disruptions and the Organization of Supply Chains. 2025.  Joint with Sebastian Heise, Georg Schaur and Peter Schott.  NBER Working Paper 32138.

• Media: Wall Street Journal (2019.11.09)
• Policy Speech: Governor Lisa Cook (2024.02.22)
• Supplemental Appendix
  

Importers Big and Small: The Heterogeneous Impacts of U.S.-China Tariffs on Sourcing and Prices.  2025.  Joint with Beata Javorcik and Emily Wisniewski.

To Find Relative Earnings Gains After the China Shock, Look Outside Manufacturing and Upstream.  2024.  Joint with Peter Schott and Cristina Tello-Trillo.  NBER Working Paper 32438 (featured NBER Working Paper of the day, May 28, 2024).

• This paper was previously circulated under the title Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Outcomes.

Evidence for the Effects of Mergers on Market Power and Efficiency. 2016.  Joint with Bruce Blonigen.  NBER Working Paper WP22750. 

• Media: Bloomberg (2016.10.24); Politico (2016.10.25).  Bruce discusses the paper on Bloomberg TV (2016.10.25).
• Non-technical summary of the paper in Harvard Business Review (2016.11.15).
  

Trade Liberalization and International Sourcing of Inputs. 2012.

Publications

How do Firms in Different Sectors Organize their Supply Chains? Evidence from Transaction-Level Import Data.  2025.  AEA Papers and Proceedings.  115: pp. 177-181. Joint with Sebastian Heise, Georg Schaur and Peter Schott. Cite.
 
Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs  on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector.  Forthcoming.  Review of Economics and Statistics.  Joint with Aaron Flaaen.  Cite.

• Online appendix
  
• Media: MarketWatch (2019.12.27); Reason (2019.12.27); Mother Jones 2019.12.27); The Hill (2019.12.27); Newsweek (2019.12.28); Quartz (2019.12.28); Huffington Post (2019.12.28); Slate (2019.12.28); Vox (2019.12.29); Axios (2019.12.29);  Fox Business (2019.12.29); Salon (2019.12.30); National Review (2019.12.30); CBS News (2019.12.30); Wall Street Journal (2019.12.30); ABC News (2019.12.30); Wall Street Journal (Column) (2019.12.30); Forbes (2019.12.30); NBC News (2019.12.30); MSNBC (2020.01.02); Business Insider (2020.01.02); Fortune (2020.01.03); New York Times (2020.01.03); New York Times (2020.01.06); Forbes (2020.01.08); Washington Post (2020.01.14); Reuters/New York Times (2020.01.14); Wall Street Journal (2020.01.20); Wall Street Journal (2020.01.20); Bloomberg (2020.01.27); New York Times (2020.01.27); New York Times (Krugman) (2020.01.30); PBS News Hour/Econofact (2020.02.07); National Review (2020.06.18); Forbes (2020.08.06); Forbes (2020.09.09); New York Times (2020.09.28); Washington Post (2020.10.11); National Review (2020.10.16); The Economist (2020.10.17); The Economist (2020.10.24); Wall Street Journal (2020.10.25); Wall Street Journal (2020.10.28); Washington Post (2020.10.29); Washington Post (2020.11.01); Wall Street Journal (2020.11.19); Wall Street Journal (2021.05.17); New York Times (2021.11.24); Wall Street Journal (2024.01.02); New York Times (2024.10.10)
  
• Previous Versions
• Original Working Paper (2019): Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-066. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
• Longer pre-publication version (2024)
  
• Replication package
  

Bill of Lading Data in International Trade Research With an Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic. 2023.  Review of International Economics 31(3): pp. 1146-1172.  Joint with Flaaen, Haberkorn, Lewis, Monken, Rhodes, and Yi.  FEDS Working Paper. Cite.

Did Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?  2022.  Journal of International Economics 139 (November, 103652).  Joint with Yi Che, Yi Lu, Peter Schott, and Zhigang Tao.  NBER Working Paper WP22178.  Replication Directory.  Cite.

Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties. 2020.  American Economic Review: Insights 2(1): pp. 47-64.  Joint with Peter Schott.  NBER Working Paper WP22849.  Cite.

• Supplements: Online Appendix; Programs; Data; and Replication Readme.
  
• Media: The Economist (2023.12.07); Vox (2017.10.19); Slate (2017.05.17); CBS News (2017.03.29); Washington Post (2017.03.03); Boston Globe (2016.12.27); Der Spiegel (2016.12.16); NPR (2016.12.8); Vox (2016.11.30); Fortune (2016.11.29); Business Insider (2016.11.26), WSJ (2016.11.28), Fortune (2016.11.24), Daily Mail (2016.11.24), Slate (2016.11.23), Washington Post (2016.11.23), WSJ (2016.11.23), Bloomberg (2016.11.22), Forbes (2016.02.15)
• Policy Speeches: Chair Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Board of Governors (2017.12.05);  Governor Lael Brainard, Federal Reserve Board of Governors (2017.09.26); Governor Lael Brainard, Federal Reserve Board of Governors (2017.05.22)
• AEA Research Highlight
  
• Previous Version: November 2016

Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Industries and Establishments. 2018.  Journal of International Economics 115: pp. 203-222.  Joint with Peter Schott.  NBER Working Paper WP24071.  Cite.

New Perspectives on the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment. 2018.  Journal of Economic Perspectives 32(2): pp. 47-72.  Joint with Teresa Fort and Peter Schott.  NBER Working Paper WP24490.  Cite.

• Media: Vox (2019.10.18); The Economist (2022.11.03)
  

The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment. 2016. American Economic Review 106(7): pp. 1632-1662.  This is a revised version of NBER Working Paper WP18655.  Published version and appendix.  Joint with Peter Schott.  Cite.

• Media: Washington Post (2013.01.06); Wall Street Journal (2013.01.07); New York Times (2013.01.07); Wall Street Journal, Marketwatch (2013.01.08); International Herald Tribune (2013.01.09); Wall Street Journal, Marketwatch (2013.01.14); Washington Post (2014.06.26); Washington Post (2015.03.12); Wall Street Journal (2015.04.29); Bloomberg 2015.06.18); New York Times (2015.07.08); Vox 2016.07.08); Los Angeles Times 2016.08.11); Wall Street Journal (2016.08.11); Wall Street Journal (2016.08.12); Wall Street Journal (2017.08.16); The Economist (2016.10.01); Washington Post 2017.03.31)
  
• Slides for this paper are available here.

Antidumping Duties and Plant-Level Restructuring. 2013. Review of Industrial Organization 42 (4): pp. 435-447.  Invited Submission.  Cite.

• Media: Washington Post (2014.06.26)

Are All Trade Protection Policies Created Equal? Empirical Evidence for Nonequivalent Market Power Effects of Tariffs and Quotas. 2013. Journal of International Economics 89 (2): pp. 369-378.  NBER Working Paper (WP16391).  Joint with Bruce Blonigen, Benjamin Liebman and Wesley Wilson.  The published version is available here.  Cite.

A Concordance Between U.S. Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries. 2012. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 37(1-2): pp. 61-96.  NBER Working Paper WP15548.  Joint with Peter Schott.  Data Appendix.  Cite.

Concording U.S. Harmonized System Codes Over Time. 2012. Journal of Official Statistics 28 (1): pp. 53-68.  NBER Working Paper WP14837.  Joint with Peter Schott. Data Appendix.  Cite.

Plant-Level Responses to Antidumping Duties: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturers. 2011. Journal of International Economics. 85 (2): pp. 222-233.  The published version is available here.  Cite.

• Media: Strategy and Business Magazine (2012.01.06); Washington Post (2014.06.26)

Applied and Other Research

Assessing the Extent of Trade Fragmentation.  2023.  FEDS Notes.  Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, November 3, 2023, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3387.  Joint with David Yu.

• Policy Speech: Governor Chris Waller (2024.02.15)
  

Factors Affecting Recent U.S. Tariffs on Imports from China.  2021.  FEDS Notes.  Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 17, 2021, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2863.  Joint with Aaron Flaaen and Kathryn Langemeier.

The Evolution of U.S. Manufacturing. 2020. VoxEU. Joint with Teresa Fort and Peter Schott.

Trade Policy Uncertainty May Affect the Organization of Firms' Supply Chains. 2019. Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.  Joint with Sebastian Heise, Georg Schaur, and Peter Schott.

The Costs of US Trade Liberalisation with China Have Been Acute for Some Workers. 2019. In Meredith Crowley (Ed.), Trade War: The Clash of Economic Systems Threatening Global Prosperity, CEPR Press. Joint with Peter Schott.

US Manufacturing Jobs and Trade Liberalization with China. 2018. Microeconomic Insights. Joint with Peter Schott.

Some Characteristics of the Decline in Manufacturing Capacity Utilization. 2018.  FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 1, 2018, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2162. Joint with Emily Wisniewski.

• Policy Speech: Governor Lisa Cook, Federal Reserve Board of Governors (2023.01.06)
  

The Distributional Consequences of US Trade Liberalization with China. 2017. In Simon Evenett (Ed.), Cloth for Wine? The Relevance of Ricardo's Comparative Advantage in the 21st Century, CEPR Press.  Joint with Peter Schott.

Making Sense of Africa's Infrastructure Endowment: A Benchmarking Approach. 2009. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper (WBPS4912).  Joint with Vivien Foster and Tito Yepes.

Productive Infrastructure and Logistics Services for Competitiveness. 2006.  Joint with Tito Yepes.  Chapter in Infrastructure Service Provision in El Salvador: Fighting Poverty, Resuming Growth.

Costa Rica's Infrastructure: Contributor or Bottleneck to Growth? 2006.  Joint with Tito Yepes.  Chapter in Costa Rica Country Economic Memorandum: The Challenges for Sustained Growth.

Keynote/Broad Topic Presentations

"Assessing the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs." Annual Macro Meetings at Georgetown (2023.05.04)

"Examining the Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment." American University Mathematics and Statistics Colloquium (2020.01.21)

"Examining the Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment." Keynote Address, Federal Statistical Research Data Center Annual Conference, Pennsylvania State University (2018.09.07)

"Trade Liberalization With a Developing Country: Effects and Implications." Department of International Trade, United Kingdom (2017.09.28)

"The Impact of Trade on U.S. Labor Markets: What Do We Know?" Council on Foreign Relations (2016.09.28)

Presentations by Paper

"Importers Big and Small: The Heterogeneous Impacts of U.S.-China Tariffs on Sourcing and Prices" - Devils and Wolves Seminar, NC State-Duke (2023.11.10); AEA Meetings (2025.01.03); IMF (2025.01.16); Midwest Trade - Virginia Tech (2025.03.28); Mid-Atlantic Trade Workshop - Duke (2025.04.25); U.S. Department of the Treasury (2025.05.08); CESifo Global Economy Conference (2025.05.17)

"Trade Disruptions and the Structure of Supply Chains" - University of Oregon (2015.10.13); Inter American Development Bank (2016.06.17); U.S. International Trade Commission (2020.01.30); AEA Meetings (2025.01.04)

"Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Engaged U.S. Manufacturing Sector" - Mid-Atlantic Trade Workshop, Duke University (2019.11.02); Federal Reserve Board (2020.05.06); International Trade Club of Chicago (2020.06.11); Yale University (2020.10.28); University of Groningen (2021.02.04); Washington Area International Trade Symposium (2021.04.29); TIGN Inter-American Development Bank (2021.05.27); Dusseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (2021.07.20); United States International Trade Commission (2021.10.26); Southern Economic Association (2022.11.20); Midwest International Economics Group (2022.04.29); George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government (2022.11.08); Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2023.03.21)

"Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Industries and Establishments" - NBER Trade and Labor Markets Conference (2017.10.21); Center for Economic Studies (2018.4.12); Washington Area International Trade Symposium (2018.04.27); National Association of Realtors (2018.09.28)

"Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties" - Washington International Trade Group (2016.01.21); The World Bank (2016.02.23); U.S. Centers for Disease Control (2016.02.25); ERWIT Copenhagen (2016.06.01); College of William and Mary (2016.09.16); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2017.02.24); Tulane University (2017.03.10); Dartmouth College (2017.05.23); University of Cambridge (2017.09.29); American University (2018.01.29)

"Did Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?" - CESifo Venice Summer Institute (2018.06.05); Indiana University (2018.09.19); Georgia Tech (2019.03.29); Drexel University (2019.04.26); Atlanta Trade Workshop (2019.12.07)

"Evidence for the Effect of Mergers and Acquisitions on Market Power and Efficiency" - Stanford RDC Conference (2015.09.18); Midwest Economic Association (2016.04.02); IIOC (2016.04.16); Aarhus University (2016.11.29); U.S. Department of Justice (2017.05.16); Federal Reserve System Applied Micro Conference, San Francisco Fed (2019.05.17)

"The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment" - Georgetown University (2014.10.24); Renmin University of China (2014.04.25); Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (2014.04.22); Syracuse University (2013.12.02); University of Richmond (2013.11.18); Empirical Investigations in International Trade, University of Virginia (2013.10.19); Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data (2013.09.18); NBER Summer Institute - International Trade and Investment (2013.07.11); CESifo Conference on the Economics of Firm Exporting (2013.04.26); University of Hong Kong (2013.02.27); U.S. International Trade Commission (2013.02.21); The George Washington University (2013.02.12); Washington, DC International Trade Research Group (2013.01.31); Southern Economic Association (2011.11.21); Council of Economic Advisors, Executive Office of the President (2011.07.07); Georgetown Center for Economic Research (2011.06.02); Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (2011.05.13); Advances in International Trade: Trade Empirics (2010.11.19); Center for Economic Studies (2010.10.21).

"Are All Trade Protection Policies Created Equal? Empirical Evidence for Nonequivalent Market Power Effects for Tariffs and Quotas" - University of Wisconsin Milwaukee (2012.04.27); University of Wisconsin Whitewater (2012.04.25); University of Virginia (2011.08.31); Southern Economic Association Meetings (2010.11.21); Vassar College (2010.10.25); Midwest International Trade and Theory Meetings (2010.09.17); Center for Economic Studies (2010.04.01).

"Plant-Level Responses to Antidumping Duties: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturers" - Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (2014.04.24); Federal Reserve Board of Governors (2011.05.27); Midwest Economic Association (2010.03.21); Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data Meetings (2009.10.02); Econometric Society North American Summer Meetings (2009.06.04); Midwest International Economics Group (2009.05.01); George Washington University/World Bank Antidumping Conference (2009.04.09); Georgetown University (2008.10.20); Center for Economic Studies (2008.10.02).

Trade Liberalization and International Sourcing of Inputs - Southern Economic Association (2012.11.16).