@article{flaaen_pierce_2026,
Author = {Flaaen, Aaron and Pierce, Justin},
Title = {Disentangling the Effects of the 2018--2019 Tariffs on a
Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector},
Journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
Volume = {108},
Number = {5},
Pages = {1289-1303},
Year = {2026},
Month = {09},
Abstract = {This paper estimates the relationship between the
U.S. tariff increases of 2018--2019 and outcomes in domestic
manufacturing. Despite being intended to boost manufacturing
activity, we find U.S. industries more exposed to tariff increases
experience relative reductions in employment, as a small positive
effect from import protection is offset by larger negative effects
from rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs. Higher tariffs are
also associated with relative increases in producer prices due to
rising input costs. Last, we document broader labor market impacts,
as counties more exposed to rising tariffs exhibit relative
increases in unemployment and declines in labor force
participation.},
ISSN = {0034-6535},
DOI = {10.1162/rest_a_01498},
URL = {https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01498},
Eprint =
{https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-pdf/108/5/1289/2470408/rest_a_01498.pdf}}