Justin R. Pierce

Justin R. Pierce

Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Email: justin.r.pierce@frb.gov
Official Website | Google Scholar

Short Bio

I’m an economist and Chief of the Trade and Financial Studies section in the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. My research focuses on the implications of changes in international trade policy for individuals, firms, and regions.

This is a personal website. Any results or conclusions in the research presented on this website are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve System.

Employment

2023 - Present Section Chief, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2022 - 2023 Group Manager, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2016 - 2022 Principal Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2014 - 2016 Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2011 - 2014 Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2009 - 2011 Economist, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau
2001 - 2003 Economic Analyst, Georgetown Economic Services, LLC

Visiting Positions

2024 Visiting Academic, University of Oxford, Department of Economics
2021-2023 Visiting Professor, Advanced Research Methods, American Economic Association Summer Program
2018 Visiting Academic, University of Oxford, Department of Economics

Affiliations and Editorial Positions

Board of Editors, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

Member, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth

Special Sworn Status Researcher, U.S. Census Bureau

Education

2009 Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University
2005 M.A., Economics, Georgetown University
2001 B.A., Economics, International Affairs, The George Washington University

Working Papers

To Find Relative Earnings Gains After the China Shock, Look Outside Manufacturing and Upstream. 2025. Joint with Peter Schott and Cristina Tello-Trillo. NBER Working Paper 32438 (featured NBER Working Paper of the day, May 28, 2024).
Trade Disruptions and the Organization of Supply Chains. 2025. Joint with Sebastian Heise, Georg Schaur and Peter Schott. NBER Working Paper 32138.
Importers Big and Small: The Heterogeneous Impacts of U.S.-China Tariffs on Sourcing and Prices. 2025. Joint with Beata Javorcik and Emily Wisniewski.
Evidence for the Effects of Mergers on Market Power and Efficiency. 2016. Joint with Bruce Blonigen. NBER Working Paper WP22750.
Trade Liberalization and International Sourcing of Inputs. 2012.

Publications

How do Firms in Different Sectors Organize their Supply Chains? Evidence from Transaction-Level Import Data. 2025. AEA Papers and Proceedings. 115: pp. 177-181. Joint with Sebastian Heise, Georg Schaur and Peter Schott. Cite.
Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector. Forthcoming. Review of Economics and Statistics. Joint with Aaron Flaaen. Cite.
Bill of Lading Data in International Trade Research With an Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic. 2023. Review of International Economics 31(3): pp. 1146-1172. Joint with Flaaen, Haberkorn, Lewis, Monken, Rhodes, and Yi. FEDS Working Paper. Cite.
Did Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections? 2022. Journal of International Economics 139 (November, 103652). Joint with Yi Che, Yi Lu, Peter Schott, and Zhigang Tao. NBER Working Paper WP22178. Replication Directory. Cite.
Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties. 2020. American Economic Review: Insights 2(1): pp. 47-64. Joint with Peter Schott. NBER Working Paper WP22849. Cite.
Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Industries and Establishments. 2018. Journal of International Economics 115: pp. 203-222. Joint with Peter Schott. NBER Working Paper WP24071. Cite.
New Perspectives on the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment. 2018. Journal of Economic Perspectives 32(2): pp. 47-72. Joint with Teresa Fort and Peter Schott. NBER Working Paper WP24490. Cite.
The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment. 2016. American Economic Review 106(7): pp. 1632-1662. This is a revised version of NBER Working Paper WP18655. Published version and appendix. Joint with Peter Schott. Cite.
Antidumping Duties and Plant-Level Restructuring. 2013. Review of Industrial Organization 42 (4): pp. 435-447. Invited Submission. Cite.
Are All Trade Protection Policies Created Equal? Empirical Evidence for Nonequivalent Market Power Effects of Tariffs and Quotas. 2013. Journal of International Economics 89 (2): pp. 369-378. NBER Working Paper (WP16391). Joint with Bruce Blonigen, Benjamin Liebman and Wesley Wilson. The published version is available here. Cite.
A Concordance Between U.S. Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries. 2012. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 37(1-2): pp. 61-96. NBER Working Paper WP15548. Joint with Peter Schott. Data Appendix. Cite.
Concording U.S. Harmonized System Codes Over Time. 2012. Journal of Official Statistics 28 (1): pp. 53-68. NBER Working Paper WP14837. Joint with Peter Schott. Data Appendix. Cite.
Plant-Level Responses to Antidumping Duties: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturers. 2011. Journal of International Economics 85 (2): pp. 222-233. The published version is available here. Cite.

Applied and Other Research

Assessing the Extent of Trade Fragmentation. 2023. FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, November 3, 2023, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3387. Joint with David Yu.
Factors Affecting Recent U.S. Tariffs on Imports from China. 2021. FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 17, 2021, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2863. Joint with Aaron Flaaen and Kathryn Langemeier.
The Evolution of U.S. Manufacturing. 2020. VoxEU. Joint with Teresa Fort and Peter Schott.
Trade Policy Uncertainty May Affect the Organization of Firms' Supply Chains. 2019. Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Joint with Sebastian Heise, Georg Schaur, and Peter Schott.
The Costs of US Trade Liberalisation with China Have Been Acute for Some Workers. 2019. In Meredith Crowley (Ed.), Trade War: The Clash of Economic Systems Threatening Global Prosperity, CEPR Press. Joint with Peter Schott.
US Manufacturing Jobs and Trade Liberalization with China. 2018. Microeconomic Insights. Joint with Peter Schott.
Some Characteristics of the Decline in Manufacturing Capacity Utilization. 2018. FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 1, 2018, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2162. Joint with Emily Wisniewski.
The Distributional Consequences of US Trade Liberalization with China. 2017. In Simon Evenett (Ed.), Cloth for Wine? The Relevance of Ricardo's Comparative Advantage in the 21st Century, CEPR Press. Joint with Peter Schott.
Making Sense of Africa's Infrastructure Endowment: A Benchmarking Approach. 2009. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper (WBPS4912). Joint with Vivien Foster and Tito Yepes.
Productive Infrastructure and Logistics Services for Competitiveness. 2006. Joint with Tito Yepes. Chapter in Infrastructure Service Provision in El Salvador: Fighting Poverty, Resuming Growth.
Costa Rica's Infrastructure: Contributor or Bottleneck to Growth? 2006. Joint with Tito Yepes. Chapter in Costa Rica Country Economic Memorandum: The Challenges for Sustained Growth.

Keynote/Broad Topic Presentations

"Tariffs and Manufacturing." Clausen Conference on Global Issues, 2025. Clausen Center, U.C. Berkeley (2025.11.22)

"Assessing the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs." Annual Macro Meetings at Georgetown (2023.05.04)

"Examining the Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment." American University Mathematics and Statistics Colloquium (2020.01.21)

"Examining the Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment." Keynote Address, Federal Statistical Research Data Center Annual Conference, Pennsylvania State University (2018.09.07)

"Trade Liberalization With a Developing Country: Effects and Implications." Department of International Trade, United Kingdom (2017.09.28)

"The Impact of Trade on U.S. Labor Markets: What Do We Know?" Council on Foreign Relations (2016.09.28)

Presentations by Paper

"Importers Big and Small: The Heterogeneous Impacts of U.S.-China Tariffs on Sourcing and Prices"

Devils and Wolves Seminar, NC State-Duke (2023.11.10); AEA Meetings (2025.01.03); IMF (2025.01.16); Midwest Trade - Virginia Tech (2025.03.28); Mid-Atlantic Trade Workshop - Duke (2025.04.25); U.S. Department of the Treasury (2025.05.08); CESifo Global Economy Conference (2025.05.17); University of Nuremberg (2025.11.08)

"Trade Disruptions and the Structure of Supply Chains"

University of Oregon (2015.10.13); Inter American Development Bank (2016.06.17); U.S. International Trade Commission (2020.01.30); AEA Meetings (2025.01.04); U.C. Berkeley (2025.11.18)

"Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Engaged U.S. Manufacturing Sector"

Mid-Atlantic Trade Workshop, Duke University (2019.11.02); Federal Reserve Board (2020.05.06); International Trade Club of Chicago (2020.06.11); Yale University (2020.10.28); University of Groningen (2021.02.04); Washington Area International Trade Symposium (2021.04.29); TIGN Inter-American Development Bank (2021.05.27); Dusseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (2021.07.20); United States International Trade Commission (2021.10.26); Southern Economic Association (2022.11.20); Midwest International Economics Group (2022.04.29); George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government (2022.11.08); Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2023.03.21)

"Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Industries and Establishments"

NBER Trade and Labor Markets Conference (2017.10.21); Center for Economic Studies (2018.4.12); Washington Area International Trade Symposium (2018.04.27); National Association of Realtors (2018.09.28)

"Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties"

Washington International Trade Group (2016.01.21); The World Bank (2016.02.23); U.S. Centers for Disease Control (2016.02.25); ERWIT Copenhagen (2016.06.01); College of William and Mary (2016.09.16); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2017.02.24); Tulane University (2017.03.10); Dartmouth College (2017.05.23); University of Cambridge (2017.09.29); American University (2018.01.29)

"Did Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?"

CESifo Venice Summer Institute (2018.06.05); Indiana University (2018.09.19); Georgia Tech (2019.03.29); Drexel University (2019.04.26); Atlanta Trade Workshop (2019.12.07)

"Evidence for the Effect of Mergers and Acquisitions on Market Power and Efficiency"

Stanford RDC Conference (2015.09.18); Midwest Economic Association (2016.04.02); IIOC (2016.04.16); Aarhus University (2016.11.29); U.S. Department of Justice (2017.05.16); Federal Reserve System Applied Micro Conference, San Francisco Fed (2019.05.17)

"The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment"

Center for Economic Studies (2010.10.21); Advances in International Trade: Trade Empirics (2010.11.19); Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (2011.05.13); Georgetown Center for Economic Research (2011.06.02); Council of Economic Advisors, Executive Office of the President (2011.07.07); Southern Economic Association (2011.11.21); Washington, DC International Trade Research Group (2013.01.31); The George Washington University (2013.02.12); U.S. International Trade Commission (2013.02.21); University of Hong Kong (2013.02.27); CESifo Conference on the Economics of Firm Exporting (2013.04.26); NBER Summer Institute - International Trade and Investment (2013.07.11); Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data (2013.09.18); Empirical Investigations in International Trade, University of Virginia (2013.10.19); University of Richmond (2013.11.18); Syracuse University (2013.12.02); Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (2014.04.22); Renmin University of China (2014.04.25); Georgetown University (2014.10.24)

"Are All Trade Protection Policies Created Equal? Empirical Evidence for Nonequivalent Market Power Effects for Tariffs and Quotas"

Center for Economic Studies (2010.04.01); Midwest International Trade and Theory Meetings (2010.09.17); Vassar College (2010.10.25); Southern Economic Association Meetings (2010.11.21); University of Virginia (2011.08.31); University of Wisconsin Whitewater (2012.04.25); University of Wisconsin Milwaukee (2012.04.27)

"Plant-Level Responses to Antidumping Duties: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturers"

Center for Economic Studies (2008.10.02); Georgetown University (2008.10.20); George Washington University/World Bank Antidumping Conference (2009.04.09); Midwest International Economics Group (2009.05.01); Econometric Society North American Summer Meetings (2009.06.04); Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data Meetings (2009.10.02); Midwest Economic Association (2010.03.21); Federal Reserve Board of Governors (2011.05.27); Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (2014.04.24)

Trade Liberalization and International Sourcing of Inputs

Southern Economic Association (2012.11.16)